Population Growth and Human Capital Development in Nigeria: Challenges and Opportunities

Abstract

Nigeria is in a demographic crisis. This is characterised by high rate of out of school children, youth bulge, high dependency ratio, as well as high unemployment and population growth rates. These have intensified conflicts over resources, insecurity, violence and youth restiveness. Nigeria’s population is growing at 3.2 per cent every year, which translates to an additional 6.7 million persons annually, making it one of the highest in the world. As at 2019, 86.7 per cent of Nigerians depend on others to survive, meaning that only 27.9 million people out of about 210 million are productive. This demographic crisis is further compounded by inadequate attention given to the components of human capital development over the years, which include health and wellbeing, education and skills as well as per capita income and gross domestic product. In the health sector, our maternal mortality rate is one of the highest in the world. For instance, in 2018, 512 women die per 100,000 live births. In addition, 132 out of every 1000 children are not likely to live up to five years. Furthermore, access to basic health care in the country still remains a challenge with about 74 per cent out-of-pocket expenditure. Our education system is in crisis and largely focused on general knowledge rather than skills. The mean years of schooling for males is 7.6 and for females 5.3, which are abysmally low. The poverty rate in 2019 stands at 40 per cent, implying that 83 million Nigerians live below the poverty line. Consequently Nigeria’s ranking on Human Development Index in 2018 was 158 out of 189 countries surveyed. All these show that Nigeria needs to transit from the current demographic crisis to demographic dividend. The National Bureau of Statistics has projected that Nigeria’s population will reach 410 million by 2050. This trend in population growth, if not matched with corresponding investment in human capital, will worsen the current demographic crisis, thereby constraining the efforts of government at all levels to combat poverty, hunger and malnutrition. Similarly, it will put a strain on basic provision of healthcare, education and skills for national development. This will also aggravate unemployment, youth restiveness and insecurity. Over the years, Nigeria has formulated several policies and laws on human capital development to respond to her population growth rate. These include the National Population Policy 2004, Compulsory, Free Universal Basic Education Act 2004, the National Policy on Education 2014, National Health Insurance Scheme Act 2005 the National Health Act 2014 and National Health Policy 2016. Despite these efforts, the country is yet to achieve a balance of raising our human capital development to respond to population growth. The demographic structure of the population is skewed towards a youthful population, with about 42.45 per cent below 15 years of age. Currently, more than 13.9 million Nigerian youths are unemployed. Furthermore, at the current pace of poverty in the country, NBS has projected that by 2030, Nigeria will account for 25 per cent of the World’s extremely poor population. This projection is alarming and requires urgent intervention to harness the demographic dividends to accelerate socio-economic development. To this end, President Mohammadu Buhari, GCFR, tasked Senior Executive Course 42 of the National Institute, Kuru to conduct a study on the theme Population Growth and Human Capital Development: Challenges and Opportunities. In pursuance of this Presidential directive, Participants of Senior Executive Course 42 interacted and dialogued with experts on the subject matter, brainstormed and conducted study tours of strategic institutions, selected states and some African countries. The findings of the study led to the following recommendations and implementation strategies: Recommendation One The Federal Executive Council should revise and approve the draft National Policy on Population for Sustainable Development (2019) and ensure its effective implementation. Implementation Strategies i i. The President to direct the Secretary to the Government of the Federation to take necessary steps for the revision of the draft Policy not later than First Quarter 2021. ii ii. The Secretary to the Government of the Federation to present the revised draft Policy to the Federal Executive Council for consideration and approval not later than Second Quarter of 2021, among others.